How it works

Predict better than the crowd

PeerLay rewards players for outguessing the field — here's how a weekly game works, from prediction to payout.

1

PeerLay in short

PeerLay is a prediction game that rewards players for making better predictions than the crowd.

Each week, PeerLay offers a new game with a unique set of events, each with 2 to 4 possible outcomes.

Events are questions with uncertain outcomes, like "Will it rain tomorrow?" — options are the possible answers.

For events with 3 or 4 options, you can select one or more, but not all of them.

Predictions stay open for one week, then results come in over the following week. Prizes unlock two days after that.

During the beta phase, you can cast 3 free predictions per week, winning PeerLay tokens.

2

Market probabilities

Scores are based on final outcomes and market probabilities. A probability is the share of players who picked a given option — 60 out of 200 valid predictions gives a probability of 30% (0.3).

Only the probabilities at the end of the prediction phase matter.

3

Score calculation

During the beta phase, each prediction starts with a score of 1.

Pick the correct outcome and your score increases — it's divided by the sum of the probabilities of your selected options.

Miss it, and your score decreases — it's multiplied by the sum of the probabilities of the options you didn't select.

Skipped events, or events with no final outcome, leave your score unchanged.

4

Reward calculation

Rewards are determined by your final score, relative to everyone else's — the better you predict, the bigger your share of the prize pool.

Reward = Final Score × Total Prize Sum of Final Scores — All Players

Try it

Example round

The options underlined below are the correct answers for each event — make your picks and simulate a prediction.

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Roadmap

Phase 1

Public beta version with free predictions.

Phase 2

Introducing the ability to vote on which events will be part of the weekly games, using PeerLay tokens.

Phase 3

Official launch, with predictions using USDC and PeerLay tokens as a governance tool, along with earning 1% of the USDC played.

Your predictions

Track everything you've cast, see what's redeemable, and claim your prizes.

ID	Game	Details	Prize	Actions