PeerLay in Short

PeerLay is a prediction game that rewards players for making better predictions than the crowd.

Each week, PeerLay offers a new game with a unique set of events, each event having 2 to 4 possible outcomes.

Events are questions or situations with uncertain outcomes, like "Will it rain tomorrow?".

Options are the possible answers for each event.

For events with 3 or 4 options available, you can select one or more options, but you cannot select all options.

The prediction phase (when you submit your predictions) lasts one week. The results phase (when events occur) also lasts one week. Prizes become available two days after the results phase ends.

During the beta phase, you can cast 3 free predictions per week, winning PeerLay tokens.

Market Probabilities

Scores are based on final outcomes and market probabilities. Probabilities are calculated based on the frequency of selection for each available option across all players. For example, if an option has been selected 60 times and there is a total of 200 valid predictions for the event, the probability will be equal to 30% or 0.3.

Only the probabilities at the end of the prediction phase matter.

Score Calculation

During the beta phase, each prediction starts with a score of 1.

If a player selects the correct outcome, their score increases (it is divided by the sum of the probabilities of the selected options).

If the correct outcome is not among the player's selections, their score decreases (it is multiplied by the sum of the probabilities of the unselected options).

If the event was skipped or ended with no final outcome, the score stays unchanged.

Reward Calculation

Rewards are determined by the player's Final Score.

Reward = (Final Score × Total Prize) / Sum of Final Scores from All Players

Example

Check the example below and make sure you understand the rules. The options underlined are the right answers for each event.

Roadmap

Phase 1: Public beta version with free predictions.

Phase 2: Introducing the ability to vote on which events will be part of the weekly games, using PeerLay tokens.

Phase 3: Launch of the beta mini app on Farcaster/Warpcast.

Phase 4: Official launch, with predictions using USDC and PeerLay tokens as a governance tool, along with earning 1% of the USDC played.